We trained RPTK on every Daily Tar Heel article before the scandal broke. Then we fed the Signal leak story and asked: who wins now?
30 articles analyzed · 12 AI personas · Zero surveys conducted · $2.43 total cost
RPTK PREDICTION
Predicted winner with 54.5% vote share
WHAT THE MODEL GOT RIGHT
Winner: Devin Duncan
Moderate coalition of Greek Life (18%) + STEM (20%) students dominated.
Runner-up: Khizra Ahmad
Strong progressive base (0.746 approval) but too narrow to win campus-wide.
Dropout: Nayan Bala — Feb 9
Approval cratered 52% after Signal leak. Model predicted exact dropout date.
Scandal as #1 inflection point
All 8 biggest opinion shifts occurred Feb 9–11, centered on the leak.
FEBRUARY 9, 2026
When the Daily Tar Heel broke the story of leaked group chat messages, every persona in our simulation reacted — and the race was over in 48 hours.
Nayan Bala
The candidate
52%
approval collapse
Devin Duncan
The winner
25%
approval surge
Khizra Ahmad
Runner-up
10%
approval gain
PERSONA REACTIONS
Each persona reacted to the Signal leak article in character, filtered through their unique psychological profile.
STEM Pragmatist
20% of campus
"And this is why I stick to coding competitions instead of this political theater. You can't debug dishonesty."
First-Gen Student
12% of campus
"While we're worried about paying for textbooks, these people are playing spy games. This is why I don't trust student government."
Progressive Activist
10% of campus · on Ahmad
"THIS is exactly why we need Khizra — she filed that complaint knowing it was the right thing to do. That's real leadership with integrity."
Greek Life Member
18% of campus · on Duncan
"Duncan's the one who kept it clean and professional — that's the kind of guy you actually want leading things."
6 min
Total Runtime
30
Articles Analyzed
12
AI Personas
3/3
Calls Correct